GRAB Q4 2025 Earnings

Good morning and good evening everyone and thank you for joining Grab's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. I'm Ken Lek, Head of Strategic Finance and Investor Relations and joining me today are our Co-Founder and CEO Anthony Tan, our Group CFO Peter Oey, and our President and CEO Alex Hungate. Now before we begin, please note that we are going to be making some forward-looking statements today.

You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from these statements. And we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements we make today, except as required by law. We're also going to be presenting both IFRS and non-IFRS financial measures. Please see the supplemental slides and our earnings release for more disclosures about these non-IFRS financial measures, including a reconciliation of IFRS to non-IFRS measures.

We're doing things a little bit differently today, and many of you would have seen the detailed investor deck we published on our investor relations website, and also the video format to our earnings. Today's session will begin first with a 45-minute presentation from our management team, followed by a Q&A session where we do encourage all of you to submit questions via email throughout the presentation to investor.relationsatgrab.com. And with that, I'll now turn it over to Anthony for his opening remarks.

Thanks, Ken. Good day, everyone, and thank you for joining us. In 2025, Grab delivered its first full year of net profitability while accelerating GMB growth to 21% year-on-year across mobility and deliveries. This represents our highest growth in recent years as our team executed upon our product-led affordability strategy.

This resulted in strong user growth and engagement, which has improved user lifetime values. Today, I want to take a step back and talk about why this business now compounds, how our journey over the past four years since going public fits into that story, and how we think about the next phase of value creation through 2028. Let's start with a few milestones to explain what they represent. When Grab went public, one of the most common questions we heard was, could this business ever be profitable at scale?

Since our IPO, Grab has now crossed over 20 billion rides and deliveries, doubling from our first investor day. We delivered 16 consecutive quarters of adjusted EBITDA improvement. We've achieved our first year of adjusted free cash flow in 2024, which has now doubled to $290 million in 2025, while we generated $200 million of net profit for the year. Along the way, we expanded our horizons.

We launched digital banks in Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia. We crossed $1 billion in loan portfolio and achieved our first major milestone with our Indonesian bank, Superbank, going public in an Indonesian stock exchange in December 2025 that was oversubscribed 318 times. These are not isolated achievements. They're the outcome of a platform that's beginning to reach escape velocity, where scale, discipline, and product depth reinforce each other.

Today, we've expanded our ecosystem to having over 129 million annual transacting users with Grab. 47 million transact monthly, growing 33% from 2023. million transact daily. In particular, monthly transacting user to annual transacting user conversion has grown to 37%, and in the years to come, you'll see us driving further conversion of our daily transacting users to monthly transacting users from the 17% today, which is actually the key opportunity as we increase the depth and affordability of our services.

This matters because users who engage across mobility, deliveries, and financial services stay longer, spend more, and are meaningfully cheaper to serve over time, particularly as we amortize the acquisition costs over multiple segments. We've talked about users. Now let's talk about product. When we first came up with the concept of the Super App, we focused on breadth, but not so much on depth.

What we realized early on was that while users were trying our new services, the level of stickiness was still lacking. The product was not customized to their individual preferences. Fast forward to today, we've expanded our product suite, multifold, and deepened our focus into the core categories, transport, food and mart, and financial services. Take mobility, for example.

We now have low-cost transportation options, but also executive services catered to corporates and travelers. At the same time, we have also integrated maps as well as family accounts, which provides more options even for teenagers to book a ride. As a result, customers no longer need to go elsewhere because they know we cater for different needs across the week. This has been a core tenet of driving user growth and engagement in a profitable manner.

This is how we drive growth re-acceleration in our business, where Grab today serves 1 in 15 Southeast Asians monthly, up from 1 in 20 just three years ago. More importantly, approximately two-thirds of our users now use two or more services on our platform. GMV growth has also significantly re-accelerated where we have achieved our fastest growth since 2022 and we are far from done in our growth journey.

The newer users we have acquired continue to demonstrate a similar level of quality when it comes to DR spend levels relative to our older cohort. They are already increasingly sticky the longer they remain on the platform. Once you reach this level of density, growth stops being linear. It becomes self-reinforcing, and as we introduce more new products in the years to come, the ecosystem will compound further.

I am confident that we will be able to sustain this growth momentum in the years to come. One call-out I'd like to make is on group profitability. We have come a very, very long way to arrive at where we are today. We made tough decisions on business to optimize, and we spent hours with the team building a monetization engine across our various segments and set the bar high on talent and overheads, all while driving growth acceleration at the same time and improving our category position across the region.

You see here on the slide the fruits of our labor, where we have demonstrated our ability to deliver consistent EBITDA improvement, generating our 16th straight quarter of adjusted EBITDA improvement, closing the year with continued momentum across growth and profitability. What matters here is not the slope of one quarter. It's the fact that incentives are no longer the primary driver of demand. Margins are expanding through operating leverage, not cost deferral.

And cost discipline is now embedded in how we operate, not imposed after the fact. But the journey is far from over. We intend to continue driving profitable growth in the years to come. We do this while continuing to keep an eye sharp on the future, where we will be investing into AI as well as autonomous vehicle and robotics technologies, which Alex and Peter will share more in their sections.

The growth and profit acceleration we have driven today is a direct outcome of the strategy that we shared with you one year ago. And looking forward, our strategy will continue to be driven by the same three key pillars. We'll focus on Affordability and reliability to widen the TAM of our audience and provide customers with a delightful experience. Secondly, deepening engagement within the ecosystem through product-led lens.

And third, leveraging technology and AI to unlock efficiencies across the platform. Alex will go through in greater detail each of these priorities later in his section. That brings me to how we're thinking about the next three years. Based on the trajectory of the business today, we are introducing a clear, long-term framework through 2028.

From 2025 to 2028, we expect to drive growth. 20% CAGR in group revenues, driven by deepening our penetration across our affordability and premium segments, improving monetization of our business, and increasing contributions from financial services. Adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion as a result of the growth we achieve, coupled with operating efficiencies we drive across the business. and then adjusted free cash flow conversion of 80 80 improving from 58 in 2025 as we continue to optimize efficiencies around capital expenditure working capital and tax these targets are not aspirational they're the logical outcome of the scale we've already built the operating leverage already visible in the model, and the discipline we now apply to capital allocation, which Peter will share more about in this section.

In closing, Grab exits 2025 as a very different company than the one we founded 14 years ago and to the one that went public four years ago. In our founding years, we proved that ride-hailing and delivery were real businesses. In the second era, post-IPO, we proved our business model, that we could be profitable and sustainable. And now in this third era, I'm determined to prove our long-term vision, that we can indeed continue to innovate, Lean in on AI-first technologies and become the platform of choice across the region while empowering our driver partners and merchant partners with heart.

I feel more invigorated today than I did when I started this business. And together with all our grabbers, driver partners, and merchant partners, I am confident that we can continue to execute towards our triple bottom line in the years to come, generating profits, uplifting millions, while improving ways to serve in a more environmentally friendly way. With that, I'll hand it over to Alex to walk through how this strategy is translating into execution on the ground.

Thank you, Anthony. Anthony has set the vision for where we are going. Now I will go into the details of how we plan to get there. The growth acceleration we have driven today is a direct outcome of the strategy that we shared with you a year ago.

And as we look ahead to the next three years, We are doubling down on this same strategy because we see that it is working and we believe that it is difficult for our competitors to respond. We are focused on affordability and reliability to widen the addressable market and provide customers with a delightful experience. Secondly, deepening engagement within the ecosystem to improve customer lifetime value. And third, investing in technology to translate increased demand density into greater operating leverage.

Today I intend to update you on how we have been executing upon this strategy and then share our plans of what we plan to do next in each priority. So let's start with affordability. For me, This is a magical slide. Just look at how we've been able to reduce the fares for passengers by 16% while simultaneously improving driver earnings by 29%.

This may sound counterintuitive to most, but it is the holy grail for on-demand platforms because it demonstrates that we can successfully leverage our tech to allow drivers to complete more trips in less time and improve their earnings without relying on high affairs. It is extremely difficult for smaller competitors who lack our network density and tech investments to keep up with this improvement in price performance. The remarkable thing about Southeast Asia is how many big cities there are and the sheer density within these cities.

Bangkok, Manila, Jakarta, for instance, all have a population of over 20 million, with a density that is perfectly suited for the Ride Hail business model. In the earlier years, Grab grew mainly within these capital cities. Now, with GenAI capabilities that we've developed, we are able to capture the undertapped opportunity beyond these capital cities. Today we operate in almost double the number of cities that we did in 2021.

And GMV in non-capital cities is growing over two times faster than in capital cities. So, as you can see, there is still tremendous upside in the growth potential in the cities of Southeast Asia. Our affordability strategy has also accelerated. GMV growth and deliveries is growing faster and more profitably than our peers in the region.

Thanks to our laddered pricing strategy and viral product innovations. Our GrabFood customers are enjoying the perfect trifecta of better affordability, selection and service quality today. We lowered the delivery cost per order by 8% since 2021. which has helped to drive a 41% increase in food transaction volumes.

Merchant selection improved at the same time, 25% over the same period. And fulfillment service reliability has also improved by 3 percentage points in the past three years.

Next is maximizing ecosystem value. The intent here is to grow the lifetime value of every user who joins us. We are focused on driving users into new categories and expanding how they use our platform every day. Every interaction is an opportunity to deepen their loyalty and capture more value across our entire business.

We are cross-selling services to more of our user base every year. Today, approximately two-thirds of our NTUs use two or more services. We are also driving higher spend and frequency across user cohorts. Our 2021 deliveries cohort transacts 1.5 times more often relative to their first year, while all post-COVID deliveries cohorts demonstrate higher spend of up to 1.6 times relative to their initial year.

To drive this engagement, we have built a powerful loyalty flywheel, combining three components. First, Grab Unlimited, the largest paid on-demand loyalty program in Southeast Asia, which now accounts for 35% of our deliveries GMV.

Next, Grab Coins, our awards program recently redesigned as an ecosystem currency to nudge cross-sell behaviors. And lastly, GrabVIP, an exclusive program reserving the best service quality and exclusive perks for our top spending users. Southeast Asia is becoming an increasingly popular travel destination. To capture this opportunity of growing demand, over the past two years, we have struck partnerships with regional airports, acquiring visitors from the moment they land.

We have also embedded in-app translation features, leveraging large language models to overcome language barriers. And we have integrated with global partners like Trip.com and Alipay to enhance brand visibility even before users land in the region. And as a result of these initiatives, Travelers MTUs have grown over ten times over the last three years. with airport rides driving over 10% of our mobility GMV today.

GrabMart is growing 1.7 times faster than GrabFood, thanks to three important improvements to the customer proposition. First, deepening integration with major supermarkets to ensure that handling of fresh produce deliveries is reliable and consistent.

Next, curating our merchant selection to shift user behavior from daily essentials to weekly stock-ups. And lastly, GrabMore has been launched, where users can add groceries to their food order at no additional cost. And as a result, we've seen a 30% year-on-year increase in GrabMart users in 2025, while usage frequency continues to improve. There is still plenty of upside with GrabMart, only accounting for 10% of our deliveries GMP today.

The success of our merchants has always been at the heart of our mission. The powerful integrated suite of offerings that we've built for them is intended to take them and the Grab platform to the next level. First, Grab offers merchants enterprise level digital tools that help them maximize their return on advertising spend.

Next, we provide integrated point of sale and payment systems to widen payments acceptance for them. And then we embed lending to improve cash flows. And finally, transform their transaction data into actionable insights to help them scale their businesses. With these capabilities, Grab will be able to deliver the one outcome that matters most to our merchant partners, which is, of course, sustained earnings growth.

In 2025, total active deliveries merchants increased 9% year-on-year, while their earnings have seen a corresponding increase of 11%. Our financial services strategy is centered on embedded distribution that lowers customer acquisition costs with personalized offerings. For the majority of our users, drivers, and merchants, GrabPay is their initial entry point into our range of financial services. And as they build a transactional history with us, we can also offer lending and insurance and even digital banking services in Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

In just three years, we have grown to 7.4 million deposit customers across our three banks. We have not had to invest heavily in acquiring new users or offering high deposit rates as we are converting the users who are already on our platform. This also drives our lending business because we see high frequency daily transaction data on our platform. We can predict risk more accurately.

And this allows us to scale our loan portfolio rapidly while risk-adjusted returns continue to track above our cost of capital. And credit costs remain well within our risk appetite. In 2025, our gross loan portfolio surpassed $1 billion for the first time, ending the year at $1.3 billion. Our goal is to exit 2026 with a gross loan book of over $2 billion.

I also want to touch on this morning's announcement on our acquisition of Stash, a US-based digital investing platform. While we remain firmly committed to Southeast Asia and the growth of our regional lending business, this acquisition achieves two specific objectives. First, it accelerates our wealth management roadmap with the addition of new capabilities and talent, And second, it has an attractive financial profile. Stash has the potential to grow into a high-margin subscription revenue stream, contributing over $60 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2028.

The last part of our strategy is potentially the most important for the long term. That is how we harness technology, including AI, for efficiency gains. We leverage AI to improve conversion at every stage of the funnel. For example, we automate menu translations to enhance conversion of high-value segments such as travelers.

Over 97% of our merchant listings regionally are now available in English and Chinese. Our credit scoring models are also increasingly robust as we were able to whitelist a greater proportion of ecosystem partners. We have also improved real-time personalization by collating a database of over 1,000 attributes and segmenting our users and ecosystem partners into 200,000 distinct segments. And finally, We've improved our search and basket conversion with AI semantic search and real time personalization.

Our tech investments are helping us to gain operating leverage. We continue to lower our cloud costs per transaction by proactively retiring idle resources and transitioning to more cost efficient solutions. And at the same time, payment processing costs as a proportion of total payment volumes is declining as we increase volumes through our wallets. And finally, we are maximizing headcount efficiency by deploying in-house AI models.

For example, you may be asking yourselves, how are we able to double the amount of cities in which we offer services with a reduction in operations headcount at the same time? The answer is that we have been deploying auto adaptive technology to optimize our core marketplace in each city, enabling us to scale in a lean and agile fashion. In fact, today more than 90% of our mobility rides are dispatched by using AI.

Looking ahead to the future, we are investing in the next structural shift in on demand services. autonomous vehicles and robotics. In partnership with WeRide, we launched our first AV shuttle service for the public in Singapore. Our position as Southeast Asia's leading on-demand marketplace makes us the preferred commercialization partner for global autonomous technology leaders.

We are committed to serving two critical functions. First, acting as a key thought partner for regulators to help define safety standards and operational frameworks for driverless transport. And next, supporting our driver partners through the transition to our hybrid fleet by uplifting them to take on specialized roles in safety and fleet management within the autonomous ecosystem. So in closing, I have updated on the strong progress we are making as we execute towards our strategy and shared with you our priorities for the future.

We will work closer than ever with our merchant and driver partners, government agencies, corporate partners and grabbers to execute this strategy. Thank you for your continued support. And with that, I will now turn the call over to Peter. who will discuss how these developments support our financial roadmap over the next three years.

Thanks, Alex.

Anthony and Alex just landed a powerful strategic roadmap focused on affordability, ecosystem-led lifetime values, and GNI efficiency. I will now show you how that strategy is translating to our financial roadmap, which is driving durable, profitable growth at scale. Now, what makes it particularly energized is how our execution over the past few years is already setting the foundations to drive the financial outlook that we are seeing today.

Let me first deep dive into our fourth quarter and 2025 results, which sets us up for the next chapter of our financial roadmap. We delivered a strong finish for the year in the fourth quarter, characterized by product-led, demand-driven growth. Our on-demand GMV increased 21% year-over-year, or 20% on a constant currency basis, with transactions outpacing GMV growth at 24% year-over-year. The strong volume growth is underpinned by our affordability and ecosystem expansion strategies that drive both user acquisition and also drive higher transaction frequency.

Our group revenue grew at 19% or 17% year-over-year on a constant currency basis to $906 million. This is fueled by this GMV momentum and also driven by increasing contributions from our financial services. Now, financial services also achieve our goals with our gross loan portfolio hitting $1.3 billion and our net loan portfolio reaching $1.2 billion, well above our guidance of $1 billion, while maintaining healthy risk-adjusted returns. Adjusted EBITDA reached $148 million for the fourth quarter, marking our 16th consecutive quarter of EBITDA expansion.

On a four-year basis, adjusted EBITDA grew by 60% year-on-year to $500 million. This profitability is being powered by our robust top-of-the-funnel growth and also our relentless focus on driving operating leverage as we scale.

Finally, we generated $76 million in adjusted free cash flow for the quarter and $290 million for the full year, underscoring the efficiency of our platform. The scalability of our ecosystem is delivering a clear trend of accelerating top-line growth, coupled with expanding profitability. And when we take a step back to review 2025, we hit several key milestones. Let me show you what they are.

First one, we have driven a strong acceleration in growth, with on-demand GMV growing by 21% year-over-year. We are able to do this as a result of years of effort to widen the top of the funnel and execute on the product-led strategies Alex just described. Our confidence in this momentum remains high because we are seeing our product-led and ecosystem-focused initiatives drive higher transaction frequency and also attract a broader user base than ever before.

Now, as we continue to scale the ecosystem, it translates into operating leverage as we benefit from greater network scale efficiencies. From our first quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability achieved in the third quarter of 2023, we subsequently recorded positive adjusted free cash flow for the full year 2024. And I'm also proud to announce that in 2025, we achieved our first full year of net profit. As we look ahead, there are four core principles of our financial roadmap that will guide our execution in the medium term and serves as a framework for how we create long-term shareholder value.

Firstly, we remain focused on growing in a sustainable and durable manner. We're not chasing growth at any cost. Instead, We are driving relentless improvements to the affordability and reliability of our core offerings to capture a larger share of our addressable market. And also employing a product-led and ecosystem-focused approach to cross-sell high-margin services like financial services.

Secondly, we will continue to drive improvements to operating leverage. Our priority is now to build on this foundation and compound the earnings growth of our ecosystem as we continue to benefit from the network efficiencies we've spent the last decade building. Third, we are laser focused on free cash flow conversion. We expect our adjusted free cash flow conversion rates to improve as our profitability grows and achieving operating leverage.

Finally, we will maintain a strong discipline balance sheet. Our capital allocation framework is one which prioritizes organic growth with high returns, a remaining discipline on M&A while returning excess capital to shareholders. Now let's look at how this all comes together in our guidance for 2026. First on the top line, we expect group revenues to grow between 20% to 22% year-over-year to $4.04 and $4.1 billion, accelerating from the 20% growth in 2025.

This is not just a byproduct of a larger base. It's a direct result of our sustained growth in our on-demand GMB and financial services continuing to be our fastest-growing segment as we scale our loan portfolio. Now, on adjusted EBITDA, We expect to grow by 40% to 44% year on year, reaching $700 million to $720 million in 2026. This step up in profitability reflects that network scale efficiencies and cost leverage we've been building into the platform.

This is supported by the continued growth in our on-demand EBITDA, but also financial services segment moving towards EBITDA break-even in the second half of the year. as we continue to lean into technology and GEM AI also to drive the corporate efficiency and the operating leverage in business. Now, I would also like to outline how we are thinking about the next three years and the goals we are focused to achieve.

For the next three years, we expect robust momentum in revenue, growing at a 20% CAGR from 2025 to 2028. with adjusted EBITDA tripling from 2025 to reach $1.5 billion in 2028 and for adjusted free cash flow conversion to expand to 80%. Now, let me discuss each of these in the next three slides. Looking ahead through 2028, our revenue outlook is defined by a demand-led strategy across several high-velocity levers.

First, for our on-demand segments, We are very focused on new user growth by expanding our footprint into non-capital cities, while broadening at the same time our product suite to capture the untapped segments of the market. This expanding base gives us a larger foundation to drive retention and frequency. And furthermore, we expect a gradual increase in basket sizes. Secondly, our financial services engine.

We expect financial services to become an increasingly larger contributor to our total revenue base. By leveraging our proprietary ecosystem data, we can scale lending dispersals with high confidence in our credit costs, creating a high margin revenue stream.

Finally, on MSME and merchant solutions, we see significant upside from merchant-focused initiatives. specifically in advertising and omnicommerce solutions like dynium. These are services that allow us to enhance our value proposition to merchants. Collectively, these strategic pillars provide a clear trajectory towards our 2028 revenue targets.

Now let's move on from revenue outlook to our EBITDA trajectory. Our focus is on driving operating leverage required to reach our target of $1.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2028. To put into context, this represents three times growth from our 2025 performance and a more than doubling of the EBITDA we've guided for 2026. This is anchored by three key pillars.

First, on demand. Our primary driver for absolute EBITDA growth is the expansion of our top of the funnel. As we continue to expand this ecosystem, we are benefiting from compounding network scale efficiencies, particularly within fulfillment and fixed cost leverage. This enables us to track towards our long-term steady state margins of 9% plus for mobility and 4% plus for deliveries.

Secondly, for our financial services. We are firmly on track to achieve EBITDA break-even in the second half of 2026. And from that point onward, we will progressively expand margins. This transition will be fueled by the scaling of our loan book and the continuous maturation of our credit models, which allows us to grow interest income while keeping a tight lead on credit costs.

Finally, on corporate costs. While absolute corporate costs will naturally increase as we scale, our focus is on driving operating leverage and ensuring that these costs grow at a significantly slower pace than group revenue. By executing across these three fronts, we will aim to become more efficient as our business scales. As we scale both our top and bottom lines, we are entering a phase of accelerated free cash flow growth.

The key takeaway here is our conversion efficiency. We expect that with just a free cash flow conversion to move from 58% in 2025 to a target of 80% by 2028. This is driven by capital expenditures and taxes growing at a much slower rate than EBITDA. While we remain disciplined in how we deploy capital into critical assets like our fleet, including autonomous vehicles, we're also aiming to decouple our revenue growth from our capital intensity.

This ensures that even as we invest for the long term, we are seeing a much higher portion of our earnings converting directly into cash. By 2028, we expect this efficiency to generate over $1.2 billion in full-year adjusted free cash flow. This level of cash generation allows us to self-fund our continued innovation while maintaining a strong balance sheet.

Finally, I want to discuss our capital allocation principles. As we move into this next chapter, our framework continues to be anchored on four priorities. First, we remain disciplined in investing for organic and profitable growth. We are ensuring that our core segments have the resources needed to capture the deep market opportunities that we see.

And also, we'll be prudent towards deploying capital where it generates the highest returns. Second, we are staying highly selective on inorganic opportunities. We'll maintain a high bar and only for sure acquisitions if they strategically accelerate our roadmap bring in critical technology or talent, and meet our strict return thresholds. Third, we'll aim to maintain a strong balance sheet with ample liquidity.

Our robust cash position is a competitive mode. It ensures we can navigate macro volatility with ease while continuing to innovate. And finally, where we have excess capital, we will continue to return capital to our shareholders. we pleased to announce a new $500 million share repurchase program this quarter.

This follows the completion of our previous $500 million share program last year and brings a total commitment to $1 billion in share repurchases. To wrap things up, 2025 has been a milestone year for us. If our first decade was about proving that the super app model could work, then this past year was a critical proof point that we can scale this engine with durable growth and profitability.

While we are proud of our progress, we recognize we are still in the early chapters of our long-term journey. The graph that you see today is fundamentally different company than the one that went public four years ago. We have reached a stage where growth and profitability are no longer a trade-off. We are driving significant top-line expansion while maintaining strict discipline on our capital allocation.

What is most meaningful to me, as well, is that our financial progress is now the engine for our wider mission. By generating robust cash flow, we are in a stronger position to deliver our triple bottom line. We are delivering sustainable value for our shareholders by building a profitable compounding business enabling us to create positive societal impacts by expanding earnings opportunities for our partners, but also at the same time protecting the environment.

We are more energized than ever to continue this work and keep growing the business for our users, our partners, and shareholders. Thank you for watching and listening to Anthony, Alex, and I. I will now turn it over to Ken Lek as we begin the Q&A session.

Here, we now open the call to questions. And as a reminder to our audience, please submit your questions via investor.relations at grab.com. With that, our first question comes from the line of Pang Vitt from Goldman Sachs, as well as Hong Han from CLSA. The question is about EBITDA, 2020 EBITDA guidance.

Question for management, you provided a strong outlook of tripling EBITDA to between 2025 and 2028, could you outline key assumptions by segment and what are the biggest drivers to this step up?

Let me take this one here, Hong Han and Pang. There's really two key themes if you really step back and in the last 40 minutes we've actually gone out and outlined what they are. The first is sustainable growth. You've seen the momentum of the revenue growth that you've seen in the business.

And that translates to what you see in the guide, the 2026 guide, in terms of revenue, the 20% to 22%. And then also they've even gone beyond that to 2028, where you see that 20% revenue pay gap grow up from 2025 to 2028. So that's the first theme. The second theme is operating leverage in the business and the cost structure.

Now let's step back here. It's really, if you look at how we think about profitability, that $1.5 billion would be the target that we're aiming for. There is four key things. The first is on-demand revenue.

The on-demand engine is working. And you see that continued momentum in driving user growth at the top end of the funnel that we're seeing right now. Now, that is going to translate into also absolute margin expansion and absolute margin dollar in the business. We are driving cost down so we can lower the cost to serve in the business.

That affordability that we're working on, so focused on, is working and we're going to continue to extend that. But to do that and drive margin at the same time, you've got to drive also lowering our cost to serve. So we've got to go and continue to double down on driving that top line but also lowering our cost to serve so that we can deliver margin improvement in both the deliveries and the mobility of business.

So that's the one first critical pillar that we're going to drive. The second one is around financial services. You're seeing that engine working now. You're seeing that loan book now continuing to scale.

We clipped the $1 billion in terms of loan book. And what you're going to see is that as the business Tens break even in the second half of 2026, you'll enter into a new inflection point. And you're going to see that profitability continue to grow. We're very bullish in the way financial service is going as we lower the credit costs also of that business.

And the risk-adjusted return that you're seeing is already tracking above our cost of capital. So you've got the financial services segment and also the on-demand business working together to really lift that operating margin in the business at the same time. Now, the third and the fourth is really a combination of operating leverage in the business, which is the corporate costs out of the house. And you've seen that corporate cost coming down.

If you look at 2023, it was roughly about 17% as a percentage of revenue. In 2025, we've gone down to 11%. So you see a 600 basis points of margin improvement of that business. So as we continue to drive costs in the business, whether it's our cloud costs, whether it's the cost of funds or just using more AI to drive productivity in the business, you are going to see that absolute margin improve overall as a business.

So that's how you think about it. Two pillars, continuing to drive that growth across all the core segments of our business, drive operating leverage, and that generates the margin, continued absolute dollar improvement to that $1.5 billion.

Our second question and a related one comes from Ben Gopal from Bernstein. And this is a question for Peter as well. What prompted us to provide a 2025, 2028 guidance as such long-term guidance is typically not common. How predictable is the business model and is this all going to be driven by organic growth?

So, Manu, yes, it's all organic growth. That's what we've given out here today. And if you look at the strategy, actually, it hasn't changed in terms of how we're going to continue that momentum. Just to earlier point the previous question, we're continuing that momentum in the revenue side of the business.

And we feel that the timing is right. The last time that we provided a three-year guidance was back in September 2022. And now the business has changed. The business has continued to scale.

We're seeing a momentum. It's at an inflection point. And we are seeing all the ingredients that we've been building over the last two years now are coming into action. And 2025 was a year of demonstration of that.

And we want to continue to extend that. But also we want to provide our investors a longer-term financial roadmap. What are we heading for? over the next three years.

And really that acceleration of growth that we're seeing, we're going to continue to maintain that. We clipped over 50 million of MTUs today, and we think there is still a lot more MTUs that we can reach in Southeast Asia. If you look at the number of cities we've added in the last four years, we've added over 400 cities. Imagine that in Southeast Asia, out of more than 400 cities, these are non-capital cities, and there are more cities that we want to go and enter and serve the Southeast Asians.

So we want to continue to maintain that growth. But at the same time also, we know that we have to grow the profitability and the free cash flow conversion. So we've given up all ourselves as a management team as well as a target to go for. And that is that $1.5 billion EBITDA that we want to reach from 2028 and the free cash flow conversion of our business.

We're on the right. All the cylinders are firing and the engine is going, which is great to see. And 2025 was a testament. We're able to demonstrate we can do that.

And now we're in 2026. We'll look confident in the next three years.

All right, we'll move on to a few questions on Indonesia. The next question comes from Naveen Killa from UBS, as well as Pang Vitt from Goldman Sachs. A question for Alex. Is there any update on Indonesia's proposal to lower ride-hailing commissions?

And if implemented, how would this impact take rates and segment margins? And what levers do you have to offset that potential pressure?

Okay, thanks for this question, Navin and Pang. This is actually a great opportunity to clarify because there's been a lot of speculation in the media about what might happen in Indonesia. So we can confirm that the government have not proposed any changes in commission caps. We're in close consultation with them.

And we're aligned and committed to their ultimate goal, which is improving the welfare of drivers in Indonesia. So those of you that have been following closely will know that we have unveiled social security initiatives for our hardworking drivers, plus a Hari Raya bonus coming up as well. And we're able to use the technology that we've developed, particularly AI and a product called RideGuide, to help them get more productive so that they can get more orders and earnings for every hour that they choose to work.

We'll continue to do this because both ourselves and the government have aligned interests to develop a sustainable platform that operates reliably for our customers and affordably for our customers to enable us to continue to create and enhance livelihoods for driver partners and micro SMEs across Indonesia. And then the follow-up question on... The margins, I think, from Divya is coming up. So, Ken, do you want to read the question?

So, Divya asked the follow-up question in Indonesia. Also for Alex, could you provide updates on Grab's GMV growth and market share trends in Indonesia in the fourth quarter? Do you expect margins for Indonesia to be impacted by higher driver welfare costs in 2026?

Yes, Divya, thanks. So, despite the macroeconomic headwinds, We have driven affordability as a key part of our strategy and the product-led strategy in Indonesia. So we've been able to improve our category leadership across all verticals in Indonesia. It's growing about in line with the overall group and faster than the market in Indonesia.

So we've been able to demonstrate a sustainable double-digit GMV growth for our on-demand segment. And we've expanded the profitability year on year. So in answer to your question, we do not expect margins to be impacted by the social programs that I just described because we're getting more operating leverage as we scale up in the country because of our scale. So probably the most important aspect of the results in the fourth quarter for Indonesia were the increased velocity in financial services for us in the country.

The highlight was, of course, the IPO of SuperBank in December, which came out now, I think, with a $1.8 billion market cap and was incredibly successful, 300 times oversubscribed with over a million shareholders. And I believe at this point we've got more shareholders in SuperBank than any other stock on the IDX. So that's just an indication of the potential of the market for financial services. And we're just getting going now with an increase in velocity to be expected in 2026.

Okay, with that, we now have a two-prong question from Piyush Choudhary from HSBC. We'll take the first question first before we pause for the second. So first question is for Anthony on our AV initiatives. So Grab has done various partnerships in cutting-edge AV companies.

Can you provide an update on the progress of your various pilots? And apart from Singapore, do you see commercial rollout in other ASEAN countries in the next few years?

Great question, Piyush. Well, Piyush, our long-term strategy is centered on a single goal of building supply resilience. We view AVs not as a replacement for driver partners, but as a critical buffer to ensure 100% reliability. That is the key driver for customer retention, especially during peak hours or in underserved areas.

You may actually have seen us make, as you talked about just now, small minority investments. Now, these position us in Southeast Asia in a way where we can have a geopolitical and technological hedge because we can partner global leaders across both U.S. and China ecosystems, whether it's a WeRide or main mobility from the States or Momenta and even hardware companies leaders like Hossain in LiDAR. Now, this agnostic approach allows us to leverage this unique position we are in with the ability to take the best technology from the world to adapt it to specific nuances of Southeast Asian infra.

Over the next three years, you asked, we see actually Singapore as our blueprint. You look at AIR. AIR is our first public AV shuttle service in Singapore's Punggol district. That's a great example.

AIR has covered over 25,000 kilometers with zero safety critical incidents or near misses. This is the highest mileage recorded and the most data collected by any AV operator in Southeast Asia. Our in-house fleet operations tooling will also enable real-time alerting for AV issues, which allows our operations center to respond quickly to potential incidents. And most importantly, we strongly reiterate our commitment to transitioning our driver partners into new and emerging roles as we move towards a hybrid human and autonomous fleet.

We are already retraining our strong grab driver partners to form a pool of qualified safety operators during this pilot. They're part of our growing AV fleet operations ground team, which also comprises customer support and depot operations. And we do all this to ensure as we move to a hybrid fleet, we maintain our operational heart while, as Peter just now shared, lowering our long-term cost per kilometer. We will of course continue to work hand in hand with regulators like Singapore's Ministry of Transport to collectively define the safety standards and operational frameworks that allow driverless transport to coexist safely with traditional traffic.

Ultimately, We see this transition as a way to future-proof our platform and network, and we ensure that we can remain the most efficient marketplace as we lead Southeast Asia into its next chapter of mobility.

Thank you, Anthony. So second part of Piyush's question is a two-part question for Alex. How is the performance of the various new product initiatives you launched in 2025? And what are the key learnings from these rollouts?

As for 2026, what new products could we potentially anticipate? So first part of the second question. The second part of the question is, I note that Grab's empty use has grown 15% year-over-year to now cross over $50 million. users as of the fourth quarter of 2025.

Could you share with us your outlook for MTU as a percentage of ATU penetration over the coming years?

Thanks, Piyush. Yes, you're right. At the start of 2025, we did say that we would be focusing on user growth and frequency. And it was indeed a key driver of our growth acceleration in 2025.

I remember two years ago, we were talking about Grab being used by a one in 20 of the folks here in Southeast Asia. Now we're at 1 in 15, and I would make the same point. Although we're growing very fast and penetrating very fast, we're still just scratching the surface. There's lots of upside left in this young dynamic region for Grab to continue to penetrate.

So our GMV growth accelerated by 21% year-on-year, but the transaction growth, which is key, grew even faster at 24% year-on-year in this last fourth quarter. That MTU to annual transacting user penetration is at 37%, as Anthony said at the start of the presentation today. And that's an increase from last year. And ATUs, the overall base, has grown even further to 129 million users now.

So the product strategy is working. We will continue. We updated the new product initiatives in deliveries when we last updated at the half year, contributed to about a one-third of our GMV. On a full year basis, I can tell you that now is represented by almost half, so 46% year-on-year GMV growth from our new products, so a massive contribution.

Just to summarize what the product strategy has been and what we will continue to focus on. So the ladder pricing strategy is working. Affordability drives a lot better frequency. So Saver gives us 1.5 higher frequency than the average.

And the high-value customers are here in Southeast Asia as well, less price-sensitive, looking for limo rides to airports, et cetera. So we'll continue to grow at the top end of the ladder also, allowing us to manage the margin mix very nicely, as you saw in the overall results. We like viral products for users. So we've been building viral products where usage brings in new users through the platform.

So Group Order is a great example of that. We get to double the retention and frequency from Group Order that we get from the average. Family Accounts is another example of that. And then GrabMore, the cross-sell from food into GrabMart, is also operating extremely well for us to help build long-term value.

And then the last and probably the most important aspect is the focus on the merchants and their success. So now we've got a whole suite of integrated solutions, as I was describing earlier, that go from demand generation on delivery, dining in, loyalty as a service, all the way through to payments, fintech lending, et cetera. We are the only provider in Southeast Asia that can bring all of those together for the merchants.

And the more successful those merchants are with Grab, the more successful Grab will be in the long run as well. In the future, we're not only talking about penetration of MTUs into ATUs, but we're now increasingly inside Grab talking about daily usage. We want Grab to be embedded in the daily lives of people in Southeast Asia every single day. So the frequency of once per day is how we think about the challenge in 2026.

And we're making good progress towards that. Thank you.

Next question comes from Alicia Yap from Citi. This is a three-part question on our three-year revenue guidance. So first part of the question, could you provide us with the breakdown by segments of how this will contribute to your revenue growth? Second part to the question, could you also provide color on deliveries EBITDA margin by 2028?

And third part to the question, will you still achieve financial services breakeven by the second half of 2026? So all pointed questions, and this is a question for you, Peter. Okay. Hi, Alicia.

If you look at the top line, what you're going to see over the next three years is with the financial services of our business, is going to be growing much faster than our on-demand. And that's just the product is just scaling. You've got the banks now on fire, going really all out in building that loan book. We've clipped the $1 billion loan book.

We expect to double that loan book by exiting 2020-26 and continue to increase from that. So with the banks continuing to increase their penetration, in the marketplace and also with some of the other products that they're coming up with. We expect that growth to continue to accelerate, outpacing the growth of our on-demand business. That's not to say that our on-demand business will also continue to grow, which there will be.

If you look at what Alex has been sharing across the product portfolio, of our deliveries business. We're seeing strong growth on our grocery business, which is growing 1.7 times faster than our food business. And that will continue to also to be maintained and sustained as we go into 2026 and beyond. in the delivery segment.

We still have work to do also in affordability. We're not stopping on affordability. There's still a lot of things that we want to do on the ride side of the house as well as on the delivery side that will continue to also fuel the momentum on the growth business of our on-demand. Margin, you'll see margin expansion as I said earlier when Pang asked about the margin side, the on-demand business will continue to grow for that for both on-demand but also you'll see the financial services margin continuing to grow faster than our on-demand business also and also when it comes to the absolute margin versus on-demand portfolios of our business.

And then also we're continuing to double down on our advertising business at the same time to supplement and complement our on-demand business, which is really critical also as we continue to grow. I think there was one more question from Alicia, which I haven't answered. I've lost track. FinTech breakeven?

FinTech breakeven, that's right. Alicia, I can tell you right now, second half, 2026, it'll happen.

All right. Thanks, Peter. So we're getting a couple of questions on AI from both Alicia from Citi as well as Naveen from UBS. Anthony, a question for you.

Given the rapid evolution of AI models and the increasing penetration of AI chatbots, what is management's view on the positioning of Grab's super app strategy in light of this? How does Grab anticipate potential shifts in user behavior and the use of AI chatbots as discovery funnels and ordering gateways, which could disrupt its services?

Great question, Naveen and Alicia. Look, we view the evolution of AI not as a threat to the super app model, but as a high-velocity engine that will scale our model. Now, to address your point of disruption, we see three strategic pillars that strengthen our position rather than pose a threat. Let's talk about LLMs.

LLMs are exceptional at discovery and digital commerce. We have now become embedded. We as Grab have now become embedded in the everyday lives of Southeast Asians. And this is the beauty of how we use and leverage this embedding.

The hyper-local physical infrastructure that we built by being embedded across Southeast Asia, it allows mobility, food delivery services to become our strong mode, and Grab has become the indispensable fulfillment partner. So LLMs can be a great channel, but we are the indispensable fulfillment partner. We own real-time mapping, the merchant relationships, and the fleet logistics across Southeast Asia. And these assets, a lot of them are physical, on-the-ground assets, are incredibly difficult to disintermediate.

Number two, you mentioned earlier about search engines directing traffic. Now, our partnerships with OpenAI now, as our first Lighthouse partner some time ago, and Tropic aren't just for internal efficiency. They allow us to ensure that when a user asks a third-party AI, for example, how do I get home? Or what should I eat?

Grab is the integrated fulfillment engine behind that answer. I would say the third part, now for users, they want depersonalization. They want efficiency. So we are deploying semantic search and generative AI to turn our super app into a plus-size concierge, if you may.

We aren't just waiting for search. We are leveraging the data we have, leveraging generative AI and the best foundational models to predict intent. For our ecosystem, With over 1,000 proprietary AI models, as Alex shared before, we're already powering merchants with our AI agent. We talked about Mai before.

We're powering drivers with an AI ride guide that Alex talked about as a coach. We've dispatched over 90% of our rides are fully dispatched with AI, and we continue to improve credit underwriting with AI. This has directly translated into higher retention and improved unit economics. If you remember from 2022 to 2024, headcount basically stayed flat, but revenues doubled.

That's what we see. We've seen the power of AI. Ultimately, we continue to build the AI-led operating system for Southeast Asia. We're excited to showcase the next generation of these tools at our upcoming GrabX Product Day, so we hope to see all of you there.

So the next question is actually on our new acquisition, Stash. As a reminder to the audience, we announced this morning that we are acquiring a digital investing platform, Stash, based in the U.S., which Alex shared more details on earlier. So two questions, one from Ranjan Sharma from JPMorgan and another from Ven Gopal from Bernstein. So firstly...

Could you share with us, management, some of the financial metrics of this business, including its burn, as well as its near-term earnings? What did you pay for these assets on a valuation basis? And second question, what does this signal? Is it a platform that's meant to be rolled out in Asia, or is it a formal entry into the U.S. market?

Does our 2028 guidance include contributions from Stash?

Question five. Lots of questions there. Let me just start. Our long-term strategy is very rooted in Southeast Asia.

We still have a lot of work to do in Southeast Asia. It's our core markets, and there's still a lot of products and users that we want to touch, whether it's across all our different segments of our business today. Now, why do we do Stash? It's really a unique asset.

If you look at the trend of when we do acquisitions, if you look at the last unique asset that we acquired was around supermarkets, the Jaya and Everice, we see Stash as a very unique asset with a few things. One is it's got a very strong IP. It's got a strong talent pool and a platform that we don't have today. If you look at financial services as a business, what do we have?

We have very strong payments. We have a strong leverage. of the 7 million customers on the deposit side, on the banking side of the house, what's missing? We don't have an investing platform today.

And that's really critical for us as we continue to complete the full picture of financial services in Southeast Asia, also in other parts of the market where Stash operates today. Now, it is a positive EBITDA business today. It is generating free cash flow positive. And we see this business generating $60 million in EBITDA in 2028.

So it's an accretive business that we see. Really, it's important that we also serve our user base today, not only in extending loans, but also teaching them how to save. It's critical in terms of our mission for the underserved, especially on financial services. So we're very excited to have the Stash family joining us.

We expect to close this transaction sometime in Q3 or Q4. It's a great team. We already have over a million customers that we're going to serve that they have continued to prove that their product works. And as they continue to build their product set out, we're then going to continue to penetrate the U.S. market, but also over time we'll introduce the product here in Southeast Asia.

We're getting several questions now from various analysts on our grocery strategy. So notably questions from John from Barclays, Divya from MS, Wei from Mizuho and Sachin from Bank of America. This is likely a question for you, Alex. Can you provide us with an update on our grocery strategy and recent growth trends?

What changes are you seeing in the competitive landscape across Southeast Asia and how do you plan to invest capital into this vertical?

Okay, thanks. So our most upvoted question. Well, first of all, let me start with the market opportunity. In ASEAN, the modern retail penetration is less than 40% of the overall grocery market.

And then online grocery penetration is even lower at less than 3% in the majority of our markets. That compares with much higher numbers in U.S., China, U.K. of 15, 20, even 30% in some of those markets. So for Grab... Currently, Mart is only 10% of our deliveries GMV, although it is growing a lot faster at 1.7 times faster than food year on year.

So we're starting to get a lot of traction. The way that we're growing is that we are adding selection that is adjacent to the food consumption that we see. So beverages and groceries make a lot of sense when you're ordering food. and we're getting the input from the searches and the behaviors of customers on the food side to understand how to expand the SKU selection and using Grab more to do the cross-sell from food users into mod.

And when we do that, we see that the higher frequency is 1.5 times, and the spend is 1.5 times when they're just a food-only user. We're also improving the integration with our partners using tech, and that's helped us to improve the reliability, so the fulfillment rate and the customer experience is getting better and better. So those of you out there that haven't used GrabMark, please give it a go, and you'll see this tremendous improvement in selection and the availability of those items.

When we do that, we get higher engagement, we get higher long-term value, and that reinforces our conviction to invest in this space. But we're investing with discipline. So we can get sustainable returns because we're leveraging our on-demand capabilities. We're growing supply chain by integrating more deeply using our tech with the partners in each market so we can leverage their supply chain assets, and that improves the financial performance.

And then finally, we can enhance monetization through the financial services capabilities that we talked about earlier. So the pay later capabilities, moving into installment loans. So you can see that we've got multiple levers to monetize, and that means that we can invest with discipline and continue to grow rapidly in the grocery space at the same time.

With that, we now have time for one last question. And the final question comes from Divya from Morgan Stanley on our capital allocation strategy. So, Peter, this is one for you. The cash on our balance sheet is notable and it will build up further with our improving free cash flow outlook.

While we welcome the share you purchase, it does contribute a very small amount of your total capital you have today. Where do you expect to allocate capital if there are no opportunities for inorganic growth in the region? are there new geographies to consider?

There's one slide I had in my remarks earlier about capital allocation. And it hasn't actually changed. If you look at the previous comments that I made around capital allocation to what I just presented also, it hasn't changed a lot because we've been consistent in terms of how we think in capital allocation. When it comes to inorganic opportunities, we're going to be continuing to be very disciplined, and that high buy is so important.

So for every opportunity that we look at in using every dollar that we deploy, and you've seen a couple of examples that we've deployed those assets, whether it's the stash or whether it's the supermarkets. We've also deployed some capital around our autonomous vehicles product roadmap. robotics also, those come with a very high threshold in terms of valuing those companies, but also the synergies we can extract as well as the tech and the talent that we can bring into the ecosystem.

So that lens, Divya is going to continue to maintain. It's not going to change. The priority for us continues to be in organic growth, our existing businesses. And the banks, that is one that we're continuing to make sure that the scalability and the expansion continues.

And it's where we do see opportunities in organic growth, we are going to double down. We talked about, Alex just talked about supermarket or grocery, the opportunity there that we see in modern retail in terms of where we can penetrate more. And we will have a high bar also when it comes to those organic opportunities, so we'll continue to deploy those. Now, the share repurchase program is important to us as we return capital back to our shareholders.

So $1 billion, well, in our world, it's not small that we've continued to make sure that we bring the commitment back to shareholders. We'll continue to evaluate that over time.

But what I want to finish off is that it's important that we always continue to have a strong balance sheet, that ample liquidity is important because it gives us flexibility to do that. It gives us the leverage also in terms of how we can invest in the right areas. So we're going to continue to maintain the very strong capital allocation framework.

All right. With that, it brings us to the end of our Q&A session. I'll now turn the time over to Peter for his closing remarks.

great well i know it's been us a lot longer than our traditional calls and also these formats a little bit different but i thought it was important for anthony alex and i here to really just go to a little bit more details it is how we think about the business over the next three years we are entering this inflection point as a business overall the business that you look at today It's very different to what we were 14 years ago, 10 years ago, and when we were in public.

And that's important because we are going to continue to execute and out-serve. If you look at the number of the results that we just posted, what did we do? We executed 2025, much more stronger top-line growth, profitability, and our first year net profit. And our three-year guidance is that reflection of our confidence.

We want to continue to drive sustainable and profitable growth. Now, I just want to also just thank you to all the partners, the drivers, and the merchants that we serve today. I had the opportunity of visiting a few cities in the last three weeks, and it's just been another just sobering moment for me just to talk to those drivers and the merchants and the sweat that they put through and the effort and the sacrifice they've put into the Grab ecosystem.

So thank you to all the drivers and the merchants out there who are our beloved partners. To all our customers, we have over 50 million monthly transacting users today. Thank you for continuing to support Grab and I hope we are fulfilling the products and the services that you're continuing to use. to the grabbers for their mighty effort in 2025, and to also for our shareholders for their continued support.

The IRT and myself will be on the road over the next few weeks. Look us up. Visit us. Knock on our doors.

Give us a call. We'll be in the U.S. and across Asia in different parts. We'd love to meet up and sit down with you also as we go through our journey of 2026 and also go through our three-year guidance. So thank you again for listening and for watching us all today.

See you at the next quarter.