AAL Q4 2025 Earnings

Call Details

• Call Title: American Airlines Group, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call
• Date: January 27, 2026 at 1:30 PM UTC
• Management Team:
  • Neil Russell (Vice President, Investor Relations)
  • Robert Isom (Chief Executive Officer)
  • Devin May (Chief Financial Officer)
  • Nat Pieper (Chief Commercial Officer)

Call Summary

Financial Performance

• Excluding net special items, fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share were 16 cents and full year adjusted earnings per share were 36 cents.
• The prolonged government shutdown reduced revenue by approximately $325 million, with the impact concentrated in the domestic entity and DCA exposure.
• Atlantic unit revenue was up 4% year over year while Pacific unit revenue was slightly down year over year and Latin America unit revenue remained under pressure.
• System-wide revenue intakes for the first three weeks of 2026 are up double digits year over year, with premium continuing to outperform main cabin.
• Managed corporate revenue grew 12% year over year and strengthened further in early 2026.
• At the midpoint of 2026 EPS and CapEx guidance, total debt would fall below $35 billion in 2026, a year ahead of the original 2027 target.

Guidance

• First quarter capacity is projected to be up 3% to 5% year over year inclusive of approximately a 1.5 point CASMx impact from Winter Storm Fern.
• First quarter revenue is expected to be up between 7% and 10% year over year, and first quarter adjusted loss per diluted share is expected to be between 10 cents and 50 cents.
• First quarter CASMx ex-fuel, ex-profit sharing and net special items is anticipated to be up between 3% and 5% year over year.
• Full year 2026 adjusted earnings per diluted share are expected to be approximately $1.70 to $2.70.
• 2026 total capital expenditures are expected to be between $4.0 and $4.5 billion, with 55 new aircraft deliveries expected.
• Free cash flow generation for 2026 is anticipated to be more than $2 billion based on the stated earnings and capital projections.
• Guidance ranges include preliminary estimates for Winter Storm Fern and a wider-than-normal Q1 EPS range due to uncertainty around the storm's final impact.